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Wuhan Flu numbers continue low. Only narrow, exclusive sectors register increases in infections, but not deaths.
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Posted by: LateForLunch ®

11/09/2021, 14:08:27

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The trends continue to be good and excellent. Every demo's death rate is so low as to be within the margin of error. L.A. County with 15 million population, had an average of 4 deaths per day over the last seven days bringing the overall death rate to an even lower level. 

Most of the infections continue to occur in the same places they have  since reopening began in April - nursing homes, junior/high schools, larger businesses (manufacturing, shipping, T.V./film studios, government), churches/affiliate organizations, homeless shelters, prisons. 

Eliminate the above locations and the effective rate of infection for everyone else is nearly zero. 
Not only that, those who are infected have been confined to those single-locations. There have been ZERO "super-spreader" events for many months. No major outbreaks from public gatherings/events (except where large groups of people are confined together breathing the same air) and in those cases, no non-employees/members were infected outside the associated locations (no secondary infections). 

So the transmission rate continues to be well below the magic number of "1". As long as the transmission rate stays less than "1" everything is fine. That means people infected on average do not infect anyone else before they recover (or die). The transmission rate at the height of the epidemic was around 2.5 or something (each infected person was passing it to roughly 2-3 others). 

HIV/AIDS still has a transmission rate around 2 even though it's been around for over thirty years - which explains why it continues to be endemic to the population.

 HIV is different than Wuhan Flu virus in that HIV infections are confined to a minuscule core demographic of less than 1% of the population (hard drug abusers, young homosexual males, people who engage in sexual promiscuity, prostitutes). This minute fraction of the general population  maintains a very high transmission rate (HIV has a virulent stage zero, where the infected person has a high viral-population in the blood making them highly contagious for weeks/months, but no overt symptoms such as fever or other physical signs or severe discomfort). 

IF the Wuhan Flu transmission rate continues to stay where it is, or drop more, it will soon become a thing of the past because unlike HIV, there will likely not be a sustained core demographic that will keep the virus circulating enough for it to erupt into another pandemic. Remember the Swine Flu? Nobody dies from that any more, because the general strain (as happens to most viruses) has become harmless. Even if you catch Swine Flu today, it will not cause symptoms. That is natural for most infectious diseases over time in a pandemic. 

And of course as predicted, those who are in the above groups with Wuhan Flu infections continue to be largely Latinos, black, foreign-born or other ethnic minority, lowest income-earners, residents in multi-generational homes, prison inmates/guards, elderly with pre-existing conditions (those who are very overweight and/or with diabetes chief among those at highest risk of death). 

So the odds that anyone in L.A. county's general population  will contract Wuhan Flu from doing any normal activity if they are following protocols, are virtually zero. 

It's actually the case now that one could not easily get infected, even if one tried. In fact, prisons are places where the inmates are actually TRYING to get infected (so they can infect guards). It's a form of attempted-murder prisoners can actually get away with unpunished- they figure they might die, but they also might infect/kill a prison guard, so they go for it. Even with that going on, no super-spreader events have emerged from prisons which have almost as few deaths per-infection as the general population. 

The overall infection rate remains low, even in a state like Mexifornia where vast swaths of the population have never really followed the protocols (in those high-risk communities, the compliance rate went from a maximum of about 50% at best, to roughly 5% where it is today).

The odds that one will catch Wuhan Flu and die from it in L.A. County are about one-in-400 if you catch it without being vaxed, and about 1-in-450,000 if you are vaxed and catch it, or are just walking around minding your own business whether you are vaxed or not. 

So all of the "finger shivering" in everyone's faces trying to sustain a paranoid, panicked obsession with enforcing Draconian Gestapo-like controls, is getting more and more pointless. 

Forcing people to get vaccinated who don't want to, in order to try to lower the transmission rate a tenth of a percentage point (from the current 0.7 to 0.6, for instance) seems to me to be idiotic. If you are not in a higher-risk group the odds that you will contract or spread the disease are almost non-existent, whether vaxed or not!!

Modified by LateForLunch at Tue, Nov 09, 2021, 15:20:09

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