|Unspoken reality of global virus tracker - more-civilized, free, West-aligned nation's infections declining as rest of world's dictatorships increasing).|
Posted by: LateForLunch ® |
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Examining the tracking data one thing that's becoming clear is that for most of the civilized world, the pandemic is on the decline. Sure, the transmission rate is still over "1" in many (most) civilized nations. That being said, it is declining in every free nation where credible stats are gathered.
For instance, the number of daily infections reported in Russia has increased dramatically in the last ten days (the doubling rate is INCREASING there) as it is also doing in virtually every sub-Saharan African nation.
What this means of course is that the first-tier nations got hit first because they had the most interaction with the (PRC) after the "outbreak" . NOTE: One is being charitable with only scorn quotes, since there is apparently significant evidence PRC officials purposefully concealed/exported plague to the world for many weeks - resulting in the horrible pandemic.
So as Northern Europe, the U.S. and other first-tier-economy, free nations slowly emerge from their respective states-of-emergency, other less-affluent, less-traveled nations are only STARTING to feel the impact of the plague's transmission rate first seen globally in February / March 2020.
Observing how epidemics (pandemics) evolve, it's obvious that many nations which did not have major crises early-on were merely enjoying lag-time resulting from being less-traveled. Now they are joining the rest of the world in getting to deal with a fatal virus that typically generates a 5+ transmission rate (where each newly-infected person infects at least 5 others).
The transmission rate in the U.S. has not been over 5 since early April. IOW, it has been slowly declining since lock-down started so that it is now approaching the critical >1 "T"-rate
So nations in the second-or-lower tier of economic development are ONLY NOW entering the worst phase of the pandemic, instead of getting hit in the first weeks after the "outbreak" (attack), but they will likely be getting hit HARDER even though it's later.
Russia and many African nations are good examples. The doubling rates (the pace with which the number of infections increases 100%) are slowly-but-steadily speeding up (a fire with a lot of fuel getting started).
Until a few days ago, Russia was way down the list of nations in their total infections - now they have more infections than any nation except the U.S.A. and are nowhere NEAR the critical >1 transmission number they need to be to declare their own epidemic stabilized.
Perhaps the worst scenario is developing in Africa. Doubling-rates are going up with the speed they did months ago in the rest of the world. God forbid Africa is about to get hit with potentially tens of millions of deaths and government-toppling instability.
See, the problem with the SS African region is that most of those countries don't have anywhere near the infrastructure/resources to fight epidemics that more-affluent nations have.
If (when) many SS-African nations shut-down their economies, their people will swiftly fear starvation/invasion and heavily-armed forces will be roaming the streets. There will be very little Rule of Law to enjoy.
The sub-Saharan African region already had wide instability due to on-going hot-wars, oppression, internecine conflicts (tribal/racial turmoil) and institutionalized corruption. Some nations have been at war with neighbors for decades and their decimated infrastructures reflect that.
So as badly as most of the free world has been hit, it is likely that Africa and other second-tier-or-lower economies will be hit much, much harder by the Plague-attack than the nations who are now over the worst.
Before all is said and done regarding this apparent attack on the world from the PRC, I will be very surprised if African countries and other very poor, violent, fascist nations are able to avoid catastrophic collapse without some sort of large-scale military intervention from outside the continent (to prevent total civil collapse).
There are more undeveloped natural resources in Africa than almost anywhere else in the world. Many nations around the world covet those resources (arable land, mining, oil, forests, real estate). Interested parties will not sit by idly if competitors move to intervene (interfere) when SS African governments show signs of collapse.
That's when things can (likely will) get VERY sticky and horribly dangerous for the entire world. For example, South Africa's government could become unstable if their population becomes decimated by plague. SA's arsenal of thermonuclear weapons would become a focus of great interest (since many nations/terrorists would LOVE to get hold of a few dozen modern atom bombs).
With resources already growing scarce even in the most affluent nations, outbreaks of new civil wars, territorial skirmishes, along with aggravation of existing conflicts could turn SS Africa into a Dodge City, USA / Chicago-in-the-1920s free-for-all in a matter of months. Nations like the PRC, Russia, the Norks facing off against the West to increase power and influence (as well as permanent military presences) in those places.
Vast populations / legions of sub-morons with heavy weapons. Now add to that a sudden, devastating global plague. That is to a large extent the strategic situation in SS Africa.
Even though Russia is not quite an economic super-power like the USA, the one thing that Russia has always had to export aplenty is weaponry and military power - and they have demonstrated in the last half century, that they enjoy using it over and over again.
That is what makes it even more-critically important that the US have a strong leader in the presidency in the next four years. If the US does not step up to lead the free world in helping SS Africa and South America survive in the post-plague years, many if not all of them will become satellites of military dictatorships like Russia, China et al.
That may not bother lunatics like radical revolutionary socialists in U.S. politics, but it should bother any sane human being who wants the world run by more-civilized free nations of the West run by the Rule of Law, not by amoral, largely-lawless militant fascist oligarchies like the PRC and Russia.
Modified by LateForLunch at Wed, May 13, 2020, 10:41:39
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