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Trump faces more 2020 danger if Democrat scores upset in N. Carolina special election
The final unresolved House race of 2018 is set to conclude Sept. 10 when Marine Corps veteran Dan McCready, a Democrat, faces off against Republican state Sen. Dan Bishop. And although Democrats already rocketed into the House majority last November, this do-over election means much more for the Republicans, who are desperate to avoid an embarrassing setback in a critical 2020 state.
North Carolina's 9th District, anchored by Charlotte's suburbs, shouldn't be a toss-up: in 2016, President Donald Trump carried it 54 percent to 42 percent, more than triple his statewide margin of victory. Yet, the "Battle of the Dans" is going down to the wire.
Last November, Republicans thought they had held this seat when GOP nominee Mark Harris, a Baptist minister, led McCready by 905 votes. But Harris' apparent win was thrown out after the state Board of Elections uncovered evidence that one of his consultants had committed absentee ballot fraud. In May, Republican voters chose Bishop, an attorney best known for sponsoring North Carolina's so-called "bathroom bill," as their new nominee.
McCready, a solar energy businessman and a moderate Democrat, has been running here since 2017 and has enjoyed an organizational and financial head start. At the end of June, he had $1.7 million in the bank to Bishop's $344,000. Pro-Republican outside groups, including the National Republican Campaign Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, have sought to level the score by spending more than $4 million attacking McCready in the home stretch.
Underscoring the importance of the race, Trump who has endorsed Bishop is scheduled to campaign for him at a rally in Fayetteville the day before voters go to the polls. Despite the signs of GOP concern, there are three reasons why a McCready victory would still be an upset:
The bottom line: Fresh off losing their majority and beset by a new wave of retirements, Republicans badly need a morale boost. A loss Sept. 10 would mean that they would need to gain 20 seats (rather than 19) to reclaim the House majority next year.
But it's not just about the House: Trump's re-election depends on North Carolina, and a Democratic upset would be a genuine sign of danger for the president heading into 2020.
David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report, is an NBC News contributor and senior analyst with the NBC Election Unit.
LIBERTY HAS NO EXPIRATION DATEDemocrats wouldn't buy a clue if it was government subsidized.
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