closely watched Senate election is taking place in a kind of polling
black box — with no established in-state pollsters conducting surveys, Politico reported Sunday.
candidate Roy Moore is ahead of Democrat Doug Jones by 2.5 percentage
points, according to the polling average calculated by Real Clear Politics, a considerable tightening since Moore faced allegations of sexual misconduct.
But Politico reported polling experts aren’t really sure about where things stand ahead of Alabama’s Dec. 12 special election.
is a state where no one has a real track record, because who bothers to
poll Alabama statewide races?” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth
University Polling Institute told Politico.
According to Politico, that leaves little-known polling firms in the field, most of which use less-accepted methodologies.
Despite a Washington Post poll
that found Jones ahead of Moore by 3 points, Moore has been a narrow
leader in three other regional polls, including a survey from JMC Analytics and Polling, a Louisiana-based consulting firm, showing him leading the Democrat 49 percent to 44.
Here’s other regional polling results:
- A student-run Emerson College Polling Society survey by the student-run Emerson College Polling Society showed Moore leading by 6 percentage points.
- A one-day, internet survey conducted by Change Research, founded this summer, showed Moore ahead by 5 points.
- The conservative nonprofit America First Policies showed Moore ahead by a single point.
Despite the problems, the polling shows Moore has reclaimed some ground lost in the aftermath of the scandal, Politico noted.
can make the argument that Republican voters who supported Trump are
coming home to Roy Moore now,” John Couvillon, a JMC pollster, told